If we believed half the forecasts about the impending doom that is apparently about to befall us in relation to Brexit, nearly every company chairman, and chief executive would probably want to hibernate until it’s all over. Along with the rest of us.
Yes, it has gone on far too long - I don’t think many people would dispute this. And yes, most of us are sick of it. But, regardless of your views on the B-word, is Britain really ‘finished’ if we leave the EU? I don’t think so.
I was recently looking back at the Thatcher government’s years and the period of prosperity that followed. In 1982, we had 3m+ unemployed; an unemployment rate of over 11 percent; inflation at 15 percent; interest rates of 12 percent; and the US$ at £2.40 to the pound, making export competitiveness virtually impossible for the UK to achieve.
And yet, 1979 onwards is regarded as the start of Britain’s most successful period of post-war economic performance. Remember Jim Callaghan’s Winter of Discontent and the famous Saatchi & Saatchi ‘Labour isn’t Working’ advert? From that decade until this one, where upheaval and change have been a constant, we moved from being the sick man of Europe to the world’s 5th largest economy.
I’ve been comparing the above stats to the UK’s current so-called ‘crisis.’
Employment is now at its highest level ever (over 32 million people in work); the unemployment rate is 3.8 percent; inflation is around one percent; the Bank of England’s interest rate is at 0.75 percent and the US$ sits at around 1.25 to the pound, making our exports so much more competitive than they were in 1982.
Listening to those who seem intent on permanently shorting UK plc and forecasting imminent disaster, you would think ‘we’re all doomed,’ as Private Frazer from Dad’s Army so often said. Well, he was wrong, remember?
I don’t believe Britain is doomed for a minute.
Goods and services will always find a way to market. The other side of the coin of a disruptive economy is an economy that offers new and different opportunities than before. And, of course, no one can ever predict the future anyway… Remember Gordon Brown’s prophesy in his 2006 budget that ‘there would be no return to boom and bust,’ only for the UK to be plunged into a financial crisis under his leadership in 2008, for which we are still paying?
Yes, there will be some shortages when our relationship with Europe changes (if it does), yes there will be trading disruption, yes I imagine a number of businesses will be putting investment decisions on hold until the fog clears. But the end of the world for the UK? I don’t think so.
I believe in Britain and in the resourcefulness of our people. We have always been an outward-looking, international trading nation. And here in the Yorkshire and Humberside region, we have many of Britain’s best businesses, thousands of tenacious and resourceful entrepreneurs and some of the UK’s most hard-working people.
So, I’m backing Britain, Brexit or not.
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